Enrollment

The board has said that declining enrollment has been a motivating factor in the apparant decision to consolidate the elementary schools.  However, we have also been told that the class sizes are too big and consolidating would correct that.  It is not likely that both can be true at the same time, and also both corrected by the same action.  

Below you will see information from Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE), who tracks historical data and makes projections as to future enrollment.  While looking at the graph, particularly the graduating class data, note the wild swings in enrollment.  We tool the data from PDE and asked the computer to help us better understand what the trends are.  We have posted that information below the graphs.

🔍 Refined Analysis with Grade-Level Context

Now that we know this is grade-level enrollment, we can analyze it more precisely.

🚨 Clear Anomalies and Irregularities

1. 2019–2020 Grade 010 (10th grade): 230

• Way out of range (next highest grade that year is 196).

• 10th grade enrollment in other years:

  • 2020–21: 190

  • 2021–22: 221

  • 2022–23: 199

  • 2023–24: 176

• Likely overreported or a one-off cohort bubble. Should be flagged for verification.

2. Grade 004 in 2020–21: 131 and Grade 004 in 2021–22: 183

• 52-student swing in one year for the same cohort moving from 4th to 5th? Unlikely.

• Suggests possible undercount in 2020–21 or overcount in 2021–22.

3. Grade 012 in 2028–29: 120

• Major drop from prior year’s 156 (2027–28).

• Either large attrition or bad projection. Especially odd since 011 was 162.

4. Grade 012 in 2029–30: 117

• Second straight year of sharp drop.

  • Grade 011 in 2028–29: 162

  • Grade 012 in 2029–30: 117

• Suggests this is a modeled attrition, but likely exaggerated or inaccurate.

5. Grade 010 in 2025–26: 199

• Large spike—this class was 177 in grade 009 the year before. Growth of 22 students in 10th grade is not common.

📉 Cohort Tracking for Consistency

We can track a sample cohort through time. Take the 2019–2020 1st grade class (183 students):

• Roughly 37 students lost from 1st to 5th grade — about 20% attrition.

• Attrition may be natural, but should be validated (transfers, homeschooling, private school shifts, etc.).

📊 Grade-Level Trends

• Kindergarten (K) is surprisingly stable: ranges from 143 to 175 across 15 years.

• High school grades (010–012) show higher volatility:

  • Could reflect increased transfer/dropout rates

  • OR poor modeling of upper grade retention/graduation

✅ Summary of Issues