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Enrollment
The board has said that declining enrollment has been a motivating factor in the apparant decision to consolidate the elementary schools. However, we have also been told that the class sizes are too big and consolidating would correct that. It is not likely that both can be true at the same time, and also both corrected by the same action.
Below you will see information from Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE), who tracks historical data and makes projections as to future enrollment. While looking at the graph, particularly the graduating class data, note the wild swings in enrollment. We tool the data from PDE and asked the computer to help us better understand what the trends are. We have posted that information below the graphs.
West Perry School District Enrollment Trends
Perry County, Pennsylvania • Historical Data (2019-2025) & Projections (2025-2034)
Select Graduating Classes to Display:
Current Enrollment (2024-25)
Projected 2025-26
Key Insights
- • Solid blue line: Historical actual enrollment data (2019-2025)
- • Dashed red line: Projected enrollment data (2025-2034)
- • Toggle between total enrollment view and graduating class cohort tracking
- • Click class buttons to show/hide specific graduating classes
- • Total enrollment has remained relatively stable around 2,000-2,200 students
🔍 Refined Analysis with Grade-Level Context
🚨 Clear Anomalies and Irregularities
1. 2019–2020 Grade 010 (10th grade): 230
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Way out of range (next highest grade that year is 196).
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10th grade enrollment in other years:
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2020–21: 190
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2021–22: 221
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2022–23: 199
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2023–24: 176
-
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Likely overreported or a one-off cohort bubble. Should be flagged for verification.
2. Grade 004 in 2020–21: 131 and Grade 004 in 2021–22: 183
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52-student swing in one year for the same cohort moving from 4th to 5th? Unlikely.
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Suggests possible undercount in 2020–21 or overcount in 2021–22.
3. Grade 012 in 2028–29: 120
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Major drop from prior year’s 156 (2027–28).
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Either large attrition or bad projection. Especially odd since 011 was 162.
4. Grade 012 in 2029–30: 117
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Second straight year of sharp drop.
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Grade 011 in 2028–29: 162
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Grade 012 in 2029–30: 117
-
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Suggests this is a modeled attrition, but likely exaggerated or inaccurate.
5. Grade 010 in 2025–26: 199
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Large spike—this class was 177 in grade 009 the year before. Growth of 22 students in 10th grade is not common.
📉 Cohort Tracking for Consistency
We can track a sample cohort through time. Take the 2019–2020 1st grade class (183 students):
|
Year |
Grade Level |
Count |
|
2019–2020 |
001 |
183 |
|
2020–2021 |
002 |
168 |
|
2021–2022 |
003 |
145 |
|
2022–2023 |
004 |
150 |
|
2023–2024 |
005 |
146 |
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Roughly 37 students lost from 1st to 5th grade — about 20% attrition.
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Attrition may be natural, but should be validated (transfers, homeschooling, private school shifts, etc.).
📊 Grade-Level Trends
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Kindergarten (K) is surprisingly stable: ranges from 143 to 175 across 15 years.
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High school grades (010–012) show higher volatility:
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Could reflect increased transfer/dropout rates
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OR poor modeling of upper grade retention/graduation
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✅ Summary of Issues
|
Issue |
Details |
|
Grade 010 in 2019–20 |
230 is likely a data entry error |
|
Sharp dips in 004 and 012 |
Likely projection or undercount error |
|
Spiky year-over-year grade changes |
Unlikely unless due to major demographic shifts |
|
Projection model volatility |
Suggests unrefined or unweighted modeling assumptions |
|
Reasonable trends in K–006 |
Suggest this group is more stable and can be better used for future modeling |
Class Sizes
The board has cited classroom crowding as one reason for consolidation. While we’ve already addressed enrollment numbers, it’s also important to examine actual classroom sizes in the elementary schools. According to the information shared with the public, consolidation would increase class sizes to 23–25 students per room—this appears to worsen, not alleviate, crowding. Furthermore, the legal student-to-teacher ratio for elementary grades is 25:1. This means that once a class reaches 26 students, a second certified teacher is legally required in the room, not just elsewhere in the building.
📚 Elementary School Class Sizes
A comprehensive comparison for parents
Carroll Elementary
New Bloomfield Elementary
Blain Elementary
📊 Quick Summary
Smallest Classes
New Bloomfield 5th Grade (14-16 students) and Carroll 2nd Grade (15-17 students)
Largest Classes
New Bloomfield 3rd Grade (24-25 students) and 2nd Grade (22-23 students)
Most Consistent
All Pre-K classes have exactly 17 students across all schools
It’s the Administration's job to run the school district, it’s the Board's job to hold the Administration accountable, & it’s the public’s job to hold the Board accountable - this is all we are doing.
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